Oil trade to remain tied to US dollar

Gulf and oil producing countries have denied plans to move trading of oil away from the US dollar to a basket of currencies.

In the event that oil were to move away from the US dollar, the inherent demand for and value of the US dollar would decrease (perhaps significantly, over a few years) in relation to the basket of currencies, and decrease (probably moderately, over a few years) in relation to commodities and currencies not in the basket.

In all likelihood, such a decrease in the demand for the US dollar would have a noticeable effect on consumer prices in the United States. Oil prices and consumer prices would go up as the value of the dollar declined. While such a decline would reduce the purchasing power of the United States as a collective and of its consumers, the decline would allow the United States to become a more competitive exporting nation.

The suggestion by China to change the staple currency for foreign currency reserves to Special Drawing Rights, and now hints of a change in the staple oil trading currency, point to underlying pressure on the U.S. currency and a growing acknowledgment of the need for a basket of currencies in order to effect a more resilient global marketplace.